Join us IN PERSON (yes, really!!!) on Friday, October 15 at 3 PM in 103A walker Hall to hear Dr. Gemmer speak on...
Noise-Induced Tipping and Climate Change
Abstract: The climate is changing due to the rapid increase in greenhouse gases. To begin to acknowledge and address this issue, over two decades ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change introduced the idea of tipping points as “large scale discontinuities in the climate”. In classic dynamical systems, a tipping event is loosely defined as occurring when a sudden or small change to a variable or parameter introduces a large change to the state of the system and is often studied using bifurcation theory. However, small random fluctuations can induce tipping events in parameter regimes far from a bifurcation point. The common folklore is that such “noise induced” tipping events are rare and typically occur on exponentially long time scales. However, with rising levels of greenhouse gases, it is hypothesized that such rare events are becoming more commonplace in the form of “extreme weather”. In this talk, through a sequence of case studies, I will discuss the mathematics behind noise induced tipping, open questions, and interesting new directions. The case studies will be drawn from simple models of Arctic sea ice, the formation of hurricanes, and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Note: Those who are unable to attend can watch via zoom. Please contact the colloquium coordinators (Kristen Rowland and Nadun Dissanayake) for information.